วันศุกร์ที่ 3 กุมภาพันธ์ พ.ศ. 2555

Netbooks - The Next Big Thing

Netbooks are small cheap laptops that you can buy for one or two hundred dollars / pounds.  This type of device is new and the technology  is changing fast.  It is worth keeping an eye on it.

They are about the size of a Filofax and ordinarily come with a 7-10 inch screen that gives about 800x480 resolution plus a allowable keyboard - albeit small.  They have an Intel Atom chip, a low power processor aimed at small computers and Pdas.  They often come with flash memory (the kind you find in a camera) rather than a hard disk.    They run Windows Xp or Unix (Linux inevitably) but ordinarily not Vista. The also come with built-in wi-fi.  Expect movable internet connectivity to be built in when more upmarket devices become available.

Netbook Linux

So you can open it up in Starbucks, without having to clear the table or knock over your neighbour's coffee, and check your email or surf the web - with a allowable screen and keyboard and a allowable computer - albeit small. 

What is coming

Right now they are a bit - well, clunky.  But the Atom chip is less than a year out of production.   The first big change is a new chip - the Arm chip. This is the same type of chip that you find in your movable phone.  The Arm Holdings business is a British success story.  It is in the business of designing chips and the Arm processor range has shipped over ten billion processors since the business was formed.

The Arm chip has some big advantages over the Atom chip for netbooks:

It is designed from the start to use every microwatt of power.  Arm based netbooks are foreseen, to run for much longer than the atom chip. Because it uses less power you don't need a fan or heat sink.  So it is thinner and lighter. It is also cheap.
But it doesn't run quarterly Windows.  So Arm-based netbooks  are generally running Linux.  Some might run Windows Ce/Windows movable (a cut-down operating system dating back to 1996) or even Android (the movable Phone operating theory industrialized by Google).

For Intel atom processors, the next version of Windows (version 7) should run on these devices as its memory requirement is smaller. However the big issue here is cost.  These devices are going to be cheap, and the Windows license will be a essential part of the cost.  Linux is free, so it is a big hurdle.

So to keep the cost down netbooks will ship with Windows 7 'starter edition'. This will be cheap, but only allow a maximum of three applications running simultaneously. I don't know what counts as an application, but is Skype, Chrome and Outlook for real going to be it? I bet you have an 'upgrade to a real operating system' button every time you try and run application whole 4, which is not going to play well.   

So is there a 'Windows problem'.

Windows will not run on what will be a very popular, maybe the market leading, Arm chip.  On the Intel atom, it has to be incorporated in devices where cost is a big issue and the competition is free.  Microsoft's clarification is a cut-down operating theory (the starter edition) which is not going to win any popularity contests. 

Linux could win this one. There are some very nice windows-like versions of Linux that could become very popular.  Don't forget that Linux runs the free Star office suite that has pretty good office applications and is free.

Peering into the future

The thing is this.  I don't know about you but I have never liked the idea of carrying a brick colse to in my pocket. The likes of the Blackberry are to my mind a huge and unsatisfactory compromise in the middle of the need for a phone, where smallness and lightness are key, and the need for a computer, where you need a readable screen and a qwerty keyboard. 

The next generation of netbooks are just what I need.  They will small and light adequate to carry in my rucksack without noticing the weight or space.  (Those of the female persuasion may put it in their handbag.)  I can get it out any time with movable internet and use a real computer with a real keyboard and screen to surf the web, send an instant message, use a word processor or spreadsheet, or work with my email.  With its built-in webcam and microphone, I can have real video calls via Skype that are free. 

In fact in ten years' time your children are going to look at you as if you are crazy (they will do this anyway so maybe not an issue) when they see you texting with your movable phone.  With eyes rolled heavenwards, they will languidly pass you their ultra thin, ultra small, ultra cheap netbook and advise you save your fingers.

I think current netbooks are a rather clunky version of what, in time, will sell in quantities in the middle of Pcs and movable phones - i.e. In the billions of devices.  Now here is the foremost thing.  For sure they will be the first computers our children own and will therefore set expectations in the next generation of Pc users. Without a Microsoft operating system?

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